Hello All and This is a Post Regarding the Market Analysis for Coming Months ... Or May be years !!
Ok, If you are Ready to Read... Just Read Carefully without any Distraction so You may Think about the Analysis and Process it for your Investing / Trading Journey !!
Let's Start with a Chart of Nifty 50
This is a Monthly Time Frame Chart for Nifty 50 Spot Level. You may See a Continuous uptrend in Last Many years since 2002. Everytime Nifty Moved Away from the Rising Trend Line, It Returned to the Trendline with a Correction. Also We Can See the Trendline Resistance, Working since 2007 and Market Movement contracted during last 2-3 years since 2017 as The Index was Moving Between the Trendline Support and Resistance and the Range was contracting.
In March 2020, It was Actually a Break of Rising trend line and Market Corrected due to the Corona Virus outbreak. The Index and Overall Markets Took Support and Started Reversal Immediately. We can see a Crossover of the Trend lines around 13000 Levels. There was a Strong Resistance of Both the Trend lines around 13000-13333, I wasn't Expecting it to Cross Smoothly as There was US Presidential Election and I was Expecting Problems in the Process. Thought of the Resistance and The US Elections made me take some Puts and Few Shorts, Which were Unsuccessfull as Market Crossed the Resistance smoothly and the US Elections Process also completed Smoothly. Above 13333 it was a clean Move and Market Moved to Hit Fresh All Time High of 14752 on Nifty Spot. After the Presidential Inauguration in US, Global Markets Witnessed a Sell Off or Profit booking and Market Corrected towards 13600 Levels.
We are Still Above the trendline Crossover area and It will Act as a Strong Support For Now. For Me 13000 Nifty Spot will Act as a Strong Support for Coming Months, We may See Some Quick Dips Below 13000 also, May be Upto 12700-12800 in a Quick Move to Shake Off the Weak Hands and The The Rally Will Continue upwards again, The Nifty is Just Above the Rising Trendline again. The Move Above the Rising Trendline will be Supported by Stabilising the Global Economies, Reducing Threats of the Corona Virus, Stimulus By Govts across the Globe to Survive through the Pandemic. Life Coming to Normal Situations Slowly will Make Markets to Continue the Move Higher. Actually it will be a Move From Trendline Support to the Bull Area Again.
My Recommendation in Nifty will be :
BUY NIFTY @ 13500-600
STOPLOSS : 12600
TARGETS : 15444 - 17777 - 18888 - 20333
Time Duration Required For this Move may be 24-36 Months (2-3 Years)
This Move Will not be Straight Line Move, So Trading is Obviously a Good Choice, But My Trades will be Focused On BUY EVERY DIP till the Targets are Achieved, Support will be Rising along with the Trendline and the Formations Done Time to Time by the Index.
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Next Chart will be Obviously The BANKNIFTY
Looking at the Chart, One Can Easily Understand.. Banknifty is Moving in Uptrend in a Rising channel and The March Low of the 2020 was exactly neat the Trendline Support. Banknifty Took Support at the Trendline and Moving higher alongwith Other Indices but Lagging in performance. The Banknifty index was Successful in making a New All Time High, but is Lagging by a Big Margin as The Nifty / Banknifty usually Trade in 1:3 Ratio and Even after 14500 Nifty, Banknifty was Struggling around 32000 instead of 43500. Now Banknifty is Trading Firmly and We may Expect a Big Move Once Market Takes Support and Starts Moving on Higher Side. My Targets of Banknifty are 42222 and 58888 in coming Months or years.
Banknifty
BUY on All Dips Upto 28444,
STOPLOSS : Close below 23500.
TARGETS : 42222 - 58888
Obviously The Move will not be a Straight Line Move, So Avoid Questions on Every 50-100 Point move, I don't Change my Views easily.
Time Duration Required for this move will be 24-36 Months ( 2-3 Years) Approximately.
RISK WARNING :
Investing in Stock Markets Involves Potential Risk to your Capital and May cause harm to your Financial Positions if due care is not taken in following Risk Management. The Stock Selection done here is Purely Based on the Study of Price behaviour on Charts. Traders and Investors are Advised to Consult their Financial Advisers before entering the trades and Take Due care to Study the Charts and Fundamental analysis.
DISCLAIMER :
The Analyst ATUL SHINDE is a Technical Analyst, Global Market Expert and Certified Financial Adviser to many Global, Domestic Clients and Works as a Fund Manager in Global Markets. He is having an Experience of more than 13 years in Global as well as Domestic Markets.
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