Hello and Welcome Back on the Blog !!
Was Discussing About Markets This Weekend with Some of Our Big HNI and Ultra HNI Clients. While Discussions many Were Worried due to Market Behaviour and Kept Repeating again and again about a Saying in Market "SELL in MAY and GO AWAY !!"
I was Laughing in the Meeting on These Statements and They were Getting Upset, Actually Most of them are Old Traders, Investors Trading Markets Since Long and Having Portfolios above 20 Cr. Each.
I was Laughing at their Ignorance and False Beliefs Hammered By Media and Experts year on year. There are Many Such Beliefs that are Hammered and Pushed by those Custodians of Knowledge and Wisdom. But What About The Retail Traders and Investors ? You Might have Small Capital or May be a HNI/Ultra HNI Investor.. But the Data is always Same For All ?? and Most Important, Everyone Has Access to Such Data Freely and at Finger tips Only.
Those Who keeps Troubling Google For Every Small Thing in Life, don't Even Bother to Check the Data before Believing Such Things. They Just Believe Because Someone Having 40-50K Followers is Repeating Same Thing again and Again, That's It !!
I have Came Across Many Such Idiots in Last 15 Years, and I Never Disturb Their Beliefs Because Normally I Don't Believe in wasting Time in Discussions where the Mindset is already Hammered and Not Ready to Listen. But This Time I was Having Enough Time and Was having My Laptop Accessible immediately, So I Just Pulled on and Opened The Free Charting Site Investing.com
I went to The Nifty Chart on Monthly Scale and Showed With Proof, How The Complete Thing is a Scam Pushed By The Biggies.
Posting The Chart here for You Guys ..
This is Nifty Monthly Chart, Have Plotted an Exponential Moving Average of 60 Period, which in Turn is 5 years Average.
Nifty has Rarely Breached the 5 Years EMA, Which was in Big Global Crisis of 2008 and Now 2020. The Index Spent very Small Period below the Moving Average and again Moved up above the Average to Trade Comfortably!!
Also If You Study The Chart Carefully, The Index has Never Touched the High's Before The Crash of 2000 and 2008 Once They Move Higher Crossing them After The Crash. Now We Know The Crash of 2020 Came after Touching a High of 12430. Now We are Trading at 15780 Levels and The 5 year Average is trading at 12921, as per The Behaviour of the Markets since Last 30+ years History indicates That We will Not Break the Pre Covid High of 12430 again in Future and breaking The 5 Year Average is Very Difficult to Break. If We Consider Everything as Per the History, Nifty Will Not See 12920, Forget about 12430 !! Why Should I Not Laugh on those who are Continuously Pushing For Targets like 12300 ?? If My Reading are Right, breaking the 12900 Level Needs Something Stronger for a Global Crash. Actually if Nifty Consolidated here for a Few Months, The Average will also Come Down a Little Bit but Not To the Tunes of 12300-12400 Levels.
One More Important Thing, Nifty is Trading Above the Red Line, Which is a Long Term Trendline Resistance starting Pre 2008 High, Index Crossed The High and Moved Higher, But Currently Cooling Off to Come Back towards the Red Line to Retest the Breakout Level. In Worst Case Scenario, This Line Will be Playing a Crucial Role.
One More Thing, Actually Nifty 2 year Exponential Average is also Strong and Difficult To Breach. If the 2 year is breached, The Red Line will come into Play and in the Last Scenario, The 5 Year Average will be Important.
Better Focus on Charts as They are Here Far Before those Media Guys and The Blue Screen Experts who Keep on Doing their fear Mongering, it is Their Job to Push their Agenda, They are Paid For It.
and If Anyone Says ... Sell in May and Go Away ... Just Laugh Out Loudly !!
Don't Try to Explain anything to anybody ... Just Let them Be in their World !!
The Writer, Holds all the Rights to be Wrong !! The Conclusions are Drawn from Charts and Historical Data, Not Just From any Misconception or Bias ... Reading Charts is an Art and Everyone can Interpret The Charts as Per their Study and Bias.
This is an Unusual Period Where Things are Very Critical and are not Happening on Normal Scale, But The World has Seen Worst, So Following the Historical Behaviour of traders is important. No Fear, Be Responsible, Be Prepared, Stay Invested, Stay Blessed and Most Important Follow Risk Management !!
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