Hello All !!
Nice to See You All Coming Here again to Visit the Blog... Keep Visiting and Find Some Interesting Stuff Here...
Today I am Trying to Post Analysis of Few Indices and Few Stocks.. It Was Planned since Last Few Days, But Not Getting Enough Time to Analyse, Prepare Charts and Write Too Much !!
After Watching the Finance Minister Coming in Tranches, I realized it's Possible to Post Analysis in the same Manner. So Here is PART -01 of the Analysis... Will Keep Posting Daily.. Do Visit without Fail, Inform your Friends and Relatives. Believe me, they will Bless you !!
We Will Start with Indices First..
SO Let me Start with Our Lovely NIFTY 50..
This is a Monthly Time frame Chart of the Index.
This Chart was downloaded on 29th April, Today is 18th May.. Almost 20 Days Old Chart.. But as it is a Monthly Time frame, Nothing to worry about the delay in posting the same chart. We are not Looking at the Intraday trading view, We are Looking for a Guidance on Market Outlook on Longer term.
This Chart Start immediately after the 2008 fall and it runs to current fall due to COVID-19, the #Chinesevirus :)
As we can see Index is performing nicely with a Rising Channel and the Channel support and Resistances are Perfectly respected throughout the period of almost 12 years till now. In the Month of March and April, due to fear and panic, the Index Tried Breaking the Rising Channel but Never succeeded in closing out of the channel. April Candle Performed Perfectly to Enter the Rising Channel again.
We Can See Multiple Supports in this area, a 100 Period Moving Average (#SMA) is Supporting price, the Rising Channel Support is there and a Horizontal support line from previous support is working fine there. so Multiple Support immediately out of the Channel didn't allow the Index to Stay out and again reversed with a Sharp move of 50% retracement of the fall.
The Level marked 9952 is Key Resistance and Market reversed to 9100 again from this level, The Resistance was already marked in my chart on 29th April 2020. Below 9952, I have marked major support at 8950 approx. I have Mentioned this support in many of My Posts in My #WhatsApp Groups. If you are a Part there you might have noticed it. if Not noticed, please Read everything posted there carefully. If you are still not Part of My #WhatsApp Groups, Please be there as I post many things in those groups which are not posted on Other's group. Updating and Referring to Older Posts is easier in my Own Groups as they are dedicated for the cause and No Garbage is Posted there.
I am Expecting Market to Move between 8950 to 9950 for sometime and then it will start the Decisive Journey. I have 2 cases here..
1) First case is #Bearish Case (Which I won't Prefer personally)
Here I have to wait for Market to break the Rising Channel Support or 100 Period Simple Moving Average and Close Below it on any timeframe above daily. I don't believe in Long Term views with Smaller Time frames.
If Nifty Closes below the Monthly 100 SMA or the Channel Support, then I will Join the Bear Party. I don't expect it to happen yet. In Case if it happens, I will be Shorting Market with a SL of 8950. It's as Simple as That. My Targets in this case are 7800 and 6800 approx. Not Below these Levels.
2) Second Case is a #Bullish Case (I will Prefer)
Here I will be Adding Longs with SL of 100 SMA on Monthly Time Frame or a Close below the Channel Support. Here My Targets are Big... I am Expecting #Nifty50 to Move upto 9950, Spend Time in Consolidation, then Above 9950, My Next Target will be 11121, 12111, 13333 and upto 15000. Obviously it will not happen in a Single Directional Move. There may be #Consolidation, Smaller #corrections, Ups and Downs in Market and It will Take Time too.. But it is the Obvious Direction of the Market.
Reason for this Bullishness?
1) Charts of Many Indices and Stocks indicate a Longer Term Bullish market.
2) I Believe India Growth Story
3) Global Issues are favorable for India
4) As per Structural Reforms announced in last 5 days, I believe we will rule Global Markets for Next decade atleast.
5) I Personally Believe, Stock Markets Normally Move in upward Direction.. which is actually the Fact of the Century.
6) India is a Consumption Story and We will See a Boom in Consumption in a Very Short Period after this Pandemic.
7) There are Many More reasons.. but this is not the Post to discuss My Views...
We are discussing Charts and We will Stick to Charts ..
So Finally NIFTY50 view is Simply Put... 8950 important Support Now. and 100 SMA on Monthly Chart alongwith Channel Support. Upside we have 9950 - 11121 - 12111 and Much More.
These are Positional Views Based On Monthly Charts. Spikes within Month may cross the levels in Panic and may recover again. so Avoid Stunts till Market Behaves well.
Next INDEX on Our Radar will be the #BANKNIFTY :
This is again a Monthly Timeframe Chart.
This Chart Dates back to 2005 approximately at the starting time of this Index. We can see a Sharp Fall in 2008 and a Similarly Sharp Recovery also. It has become a past now and May be many of you haven't seen that period.
In this Chart I am using a Rising Channel and a Separate Rising Trendline with Dotted Red Color. We Might See Both these Line Working as Strong Support in this Chart. The #banknifty is Comparatively new so I was unable to plot 200 Day Weighted Moving Average (#WMA). I have Plotted 150 Day #WMA here which matches Exactly with the Red Dotted Trendline in the Chart. The Index has taken support on the Channel Support line and a Horizontal support line from the Past which works around 17000 Levels. The Channel Support is Working Fine and I am Expecting it to Hold for a longer Period. On the Upper Side We are Having Resistances around 20640, 24400 and so On... First we need to Cross and Sustain above 20640 which is acting a Strong Level as of now. I am not discussing Levels on Smaller Time-frame Charts as this is not a Trading View. It's a Positional Market Outlook Only.
For Levels on Smaller Time frame and Analysis time to time, You may Join My #WhatsApp & #Telegram free groups.. I am Mostly Active on WhatsApp now a days. Links are Posted, find in this Post and Join !!
Let's Moe on to Next Important Index.. #NIFTY500 Index
Here comes the Monthly Chart for #Nifty500
Why I refer this Chart ?
This is a Broader market Index and It gives a Much balanced View of the Overall Markets. It is Our Own Strength in other Terms. Top 500 companies included here.
I have Plotted a Rising Channel, 2 Trend Lines, 2 Support / resistance, 100 Period Simple Moving Average.
It will be a Surprising to see How the Red Colored dotted #Trend line is Exactly Matching the Channel Support.
2nd Trend line drawn from a different angel is also seen in Gray Color.
As you Can See.. 2 Trend lines, Channel Support line, 100 SMA, and a Horizontal Support Line are Working as Strong Supports in a Small zone. It Looks Difficult for this Index to Fall more and Below the Recent Lows. Currently the Index is trading at 7504. We are Talking Supports around 6000 Levels. in between We can watch at 6700-7000 zone which is also a area of conflict for a Support line drawn from a Support in the Past and the 100 Period SMA. Bearish Views Only if The Index Breaks 6000 Levels.
On the Other Hand.. I will Settle with a New All time High Only for the upside target. We are Talking about 10100++ Levels.
For Me The Risk Reward here is Best but We can't trade it Like #SP500 in US Markets. So I will Prefer Buying Good Stocks after research and then will enter them for Positional Upside targets.
For Me The Risk Reward here is Best but We can't trade it Like #SP500 in US Markets. So I will Prefer Buying Good Stocks after research and then will enter them for Positional Upside targets.
Moving to One More Index : #NIFTY200
Actually this Index refers to Stocks Mostly in F&O Segment, But recently many stocks are removed from F&O, so the Index Includes Cash Stocks also. The Rising Stars of the Indian Market.
Here is a Monthly Chart, This Index is Comparatively Newly structured, so we have very less data on Charts. Like Other Indices, here also I have plotted Trend lines as The Channel wasn't possible here. We can See Support is taken and Reversal done after breaking the Trend line for a quick move below trend line. The 100 Period SMA is placed around 4449 now. and the Index is trading around 4752 levels. Support taken by last Candle was around 4200 levels. We Might see some Panic moves down for a quick visit to the trend line support before any up move. The First Target on this Index will be 5460 and Next will be 6350 gradually. The Move above 6350 may be Fast and Impulsive. Many stocks will see Life time highs in that case.
Now I will Move to The Next General Index : NIFTY #MIDCAP100
This is Officially the Representation of the Midcap Category Stocks. Actually these are Immediately after Nifty50 Stocks.
This is also a Monthly Chart as per my Rule of tracking Markets.
Here in this Chart the Index is Perfectly placed in the Rising Channel. March Month low is Exactly on the Channel Support Line. I have placed a 100 Period Simple Moving Average, which is Slightly higher and Currently Placed around 13429 levels. The Index is Trading around 12992. The Chart is Older Chart of 29th April.
Supports for this Index are placed around 11000-11200 levels.
Resistance is around 13429 - 14120 as of now.
I Hope the Downside will be Limited inside the Channel and We will See Strong Reversal in the Index Soon. I have increased my MIDCAP #Mutual #Funds Contribution with a Certain Risk in Mind. However I believe Good Funds can deliver Positive Returns even if the Index is in red. View Should be Longer term #Wealth Creation. Need Help in Selecting Right Mutual Fund? Timely Advice on Entry, Exit ? you may Drop a Message to service@planmymoney.in
We do have Few Equity Trading Paid Services Covering #Midcap #Stocks. Will post Details below at the End of this Post.
Let's Move on to Next Index : NIFTY #SMALLCAP100
Warning : These are Riskier Stocks. Investing in SmallCaps may Damage your Financial Planning and Your Existing Capital.
Here is a Monthly Chart again.
This Chart is a Big Problem for Many Investors. Investors who believe Buying any smallcap stock may give them Opportunity to become Overnight Millionaire. The Index is in Complete Bearish Mood. Broken Rising Trendline in March with a Strong Fall and Wiped out many Investors and Traders.
Actually the Index was finely moving along the trendline waiting for an opportunity for a upside breakout but the Sudden Entry of the #chinesevirus COVID-19 caused big Damage to #Smallcap Stocks. The Index Took Support around 3170 Levels which is a Previous Strong Support. We May Expect a Recovery upto 4730 and even 5660 levels before any further fall.
If the Structural reforms work out sooner than expected, then we have a Chance of Bullish Entry in the Index.
Even at Current Scenario, Quality picks in this Index Deliver High Returns in Short Period. We Do trade Smallcap Stocks in Our Paid Services in Cash Segment and Deliver High Returns. Stock Selection is the key here and it is the Most important Factor in Overall Trading Career !!
We will Conclude Today's Part here with all these Major Indices. We will Have a Look at Sectoral Indices in Tomorrow Post and After that we will See Stocks In Next 3 Parts.
Creating all the Quality Content alongwith Charts requires a Very HARD WORK.
So I request you all to respect the Hard Work and please do not Copy paste the contents in your name. You are Free to Distribute the Link of this Blog post as it is if required. Do not change anything !!
The Author Possess All the RIGHTS to be WRONG !!
Reading of Charts is an Art and Everyone is free to make their own opinion while reading the Chart. My Opinion may be Biased towards upside. But I do Write What I see in Charts and I do Analyse Markets with a Very Detailed Approach.
You may Like or Dislike the Content, it's your choice !!
The Author "SHINDE ATUL S" is a Technical Analyst, Having Expertise in Global Market Analysis and is a Certified Investment Adviser with Certifications from Many global universities. The Author possesses experience of Over 13 years in Indian as well as Global Markets as a Investment Adviser and Fund Manager for Clients Across the World.
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