MARKET OUTLOOK : PART II

Hello Again !!

Yesterday we have seen analysis of all major Indices, Received some good Reviews and some criticism indirectly, But I don't care about anyone's views. I am here since Last 13 years only because My Analysis Works. and I don't give a damn to those who Judge without reading carefully. 

Those who need, read and follow me carefully.. Others Just Leave us :) 

As I have stated many times in My WhatsApp Group updates, I was Expecting Nifty to Touch 8950 at least once, Which did today. Nifty took a Liberty of Falling a Little More than Expected but it is Still within safe range. Similarly All other Indices are Working Fine even after today's Fall. If you have read carefully through yesterday's Post, you might have Noticed it. Most Important thing is What I knew on 29th April, others started talking about it now. Never Mind !! 

Let's Move to Some Sectoral Indices. 

Yesterday We checked all major Indices, One of them was Banknifty which is Actually a Sectoral Index. 

FIRST INDEX will be #NIFTYAUTO Index 

This is a Monthly Chart as always.. Don't Expect 1Hr. or 15 Min Charts here on my Blog. It won't happen.

The Auto Index was in Bearish Mode since a Long Time and The Fall got stronger with the COVID-19 Entry..

What Next? The Auto index Took Support around 4480 Levels and Reversed. The Fall Started some where around 12100 and Reached 4480 level. The Reason for this Fall was consistent poor Numbers from Auto Industry. Although Many Stocks from Auto Performed Exceptionally well But they Failed to support the Auto Index. The Index Started falling from 2017 and still falling.

After the Lockdown issues and zero sales figures, We Know Once the Lock down is lifted there will be a resumption of sales. The Things will surely Change after this period. There will be Many Structural Changes across Industry, Some Innovative, Alternative Products will be Launched with different kind of Services. Electric Vehicles will be Pushed. Pollution Norms will change. Many Positive Things Will Start changing the Industry. If they don't learn now, then it will be a game Over for Many companies. 

If Tomorrow the Index Performs well, We will start a relief for the Fall and the Index Will Start Rising upto 6830 levels. Today the index Closed at 5430, Support is around 4480 and Next Expected Level is 6830. I am Not Expecting the Index to Outperform the Markets immediately. So No Big Positive, No Big Negative on this Index.. I am Neutral. 

Some Stocks Will Perform, Some Will not. The Performing Stocks will be Sent to Members as and when their Move starts.  Just For this Post.. I will be Looking at Mahindra & Mahindra, Exide, Bharat forge for Now. Will Update if anything other comes up while Checking Charts. 

Moving On to next INDEX : #NIFTYIT Index

Almost Everyone in market Keeps an eye on this Index always Whole Watching the USDINR Rates.. Funny Thing is Very Few of them can Actually Tell why they are watching IT Index with USDINR... Otherwise it's Just a Fashion to talk about the relation. Agree ?? 

 This is Nifty IT Monthly Chart.. 

Similar to Previous cases of Major Index Charts, This Chart is also showing the Index is still in Rising Channel and there is Nothing to Worry unless and untill the Channel Support is broken decisively by the Index. 

We can see a 100 Period Simple Moving Average Working almost Parallel to the Channel Support and The March Lows are exactly on the 100 SMA, April Lows are exactly on the Channel Support line. Now The Candle of May is not yet ready for discussion but I can assure you, it may not break the Channel yet. We might see a Sideways or Positive Move in this Index as Many of the Underlying Stocks are still performing well but Stuck due to Market Fall. It will be Interesting to see how these Companies Change their Working Style adapting new Methods and new Challenges globally. 

TCS has already announced a 2 year Work From Home Initiative, which will help the company recover Big Amount towards losses caused by the COVID-19 Effect. The Cost cutting, reduction is Maintenance of Office, transport and other expenses will be Huge. On the Other Hand, Many Companies, Small and Medium Businesses will shift to Digital model as it was an easy task for all and One Can do Multitasking and complete more Work with the Help of Digital Methods of meetings and Other Work. This Rush towards Digitization will help many companies. 

The Govt. initiative towards Reforms in Educational Sector will give major boost and are going to change the lifestyle of Indians very soon. (You may Read the Stimulus Document carefully and Think about the reforms carefully once you are done with the Atmanirbhar Jokes and Criticism) 

The India after few Months will be a Different India !! 

The Recommendation about this Index is Simple, Supports are in the Zone of 11000-11500, Today's Close was 13314... Upside Targets are 16900 - 21000.

It may Sound Stupid and Fancy, I am Not Expecting it in a Day either. It might be a Bumpy Ride Till target, But For the Time Being Support and base will be around 11000-11500, We may not see these Levels soon. The Only Condition here will be, there is no global Panic again due to some issues like COVID-19. If this doesn't happen... Everything is good !!

If we Break 11000, I will be a complete bear in this Index and Will Start with Few Select Stocks aggressively.. Will not Name the Stocks here and Now !! 

Next Index will be : #NIFTYMEDIA Index 

Actually There is Nothing to Write about this Index and I never Trade Media Stocks. It's a Useless Index.. Now Trading Below it's Inception price. Complete AVOID... !! 

Next Index Will be : #NIFTYMETAL Index 

One of My Favorite Index

This is a Monthly Chart of NIFTY Metal Index. 

The Chart is Self Explanatory in Nature.. No One Needs to be an Expert to trade this Index. Simple and Clean Structure. Fixed Bottom and Almost Fixed upside. Keep Trading !! 

The Fall in Metal Index is always intense when there is a Global issue as it relates to the Biggest issue of consumption in Metals. Metal index Cracked Big time and Reached Exact Support and Long Term Bottom. 1480 level is the base and Important support around 1600 Levels, Now the Index is Trading around 1673 levels. Nearest Resistance is at 1844. 

If the Index fails to cross 1844, We may expect a Sideways Move between 1480 to 1844, The Consolidation may be expected Only if Businesses do not resume till May end. Once Business resumes and Govt Projects start Running, We may see a Sharp jump in Metal Consumption and the Index will Rise Sharply towards 2165 and 2500 levels. The Consumption will be huge as there is a Lag of almost 2-3 months. 

Consumption due to Govt Sponsored Infrastructure Projects will reach the peak in next few Months globally. Remember, After CEMENT, Next is always Metals!!

(Can't Relate reference of Cement? you might have missed my WhatsApp Post regrading Govt Spending in Groups, Never miss anything, Just join My WhatsApp Groups and Always be Informed) 

Let's Move on to Next Index : #NIFTYPHARMA Index 

Out performer of this period.. 

Look at the Monthly Chart, Beautiful Structure... 

Perfectly Moving along a Falling Trend line. I have Plotted 2 trend lines here. One is Dotted and Another is straight line. Currently the Index is trading between these 2 lines. 

The Index Showed a Strong rally and a Big Elephant Candle indicating the game of Bears is over now in this Index. It Managed to Cross 50 Period Simple Moving Average and Sustaining above it as of now. The Index will Face a Sharp Resistance near 9500 levels as per the Chart downloaded on 29th April 2020. If you are able to Check Chart now... The Index made a High of 9500+ in May and now trading around 9000 Levels, a Fall of 500 points. I am Not expecting a continuation of down trend here. 

As per the Strong Candle in April, I am Expecting a Breakout from the Long Term Falling Trend. Marked on Chart last Month, I was expecting a reversal upto 8300 before we start a Upward continuation here. Once 8300 is touched, We may Cross 9500 Resistance and break the Falling Trend line Resistance to Start a Fresh Journey in the Bullish Territory. I am Expecting this as I have Checked many Underlying Stocks and I have seen Strong Bullish Charts in this space. Big Long Term Breakouts are happening here and This Sector will be the favorite of Investors in coming Months.

The Recommendation here will be Buy On DIPS Only !! We are going to witness a Breakout in this Index !! 

Moving On .. Next Index is : #NIFTYMNC Index 

Posting 2 Charts here, just for Simplification of Reading..  

First We will See Monthly Chart .. This Chart is a Clean Uptrend Chart, No Doubts. The Index Moving Perfectly along a Rising Trend Line. March Low Tried to Break the Rising Trend, But the Attempt was unsuccessful and the Index Managed to Take Support on the Trend Line as well as a Horizontal Support Line which was a Previous Strong Resistance. Next Candle of April Worked Well, Low Exactly on the Confluence point and a Green Strong Candle.

There is a Falling Trend line from the upper side of the Chart.. It will act as a Strong Resistance and Will force the Index to Move in a Contraction. The Movement of this Index will be Trapped between the 2 Trend lines, The Range Contraction will give a Superior Breakout, but it will be a Future Event. Better be ready for the Range Contraction here. 

Weekly Chart Suggests the Same, Above 12415.. Next Range comes in play. 12415 to 14250 will be the Next Range. Here The Upper Level Falling Trendline is not drawn, it will be Limiting the Range.

Recommendation here will be to Play the Range and Not Expect any big Moves unless and untill the Breakout is done. 

Moving Ahead... Next Index is : #NIFTYSERVICE Index 

I don't think this Chart Needs any kind of Explanation at all.. The Chart is So Simple, it describes everything !! 

Long Term Bullish Trend is Still intact and The Supports are tested and Respected Very Well. April Candle was also great .. 

Next Resistances and Supports are marked on the Chart. Supports are at 11000-11300 area. Next Resistance around 13550-13700 .. Currently Index trading around 11640. if the Trendline Breaks .. The Index will Enter Bear Mode. I don't Expect that considering Other Indices.. But Be Prepared !! 

Next in the Line is : #NIFTYENERGY Index 

One More Simple Chart .. 

Support 10690, Resistance around 13100.. Between These Levels... Khelate Raho !! 

Currently Trading at 12214, Simply Buy the Dips and Sell on Rise.. Nothing Else. 

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I have avoided few Indices here as we have covered Enough for a Blog post.. Will Keep updating again as and When Needed !! 

The Summary of the Reading from all Major and Sectoral Indices is Overall Market is Still in Uptrend except some sectoral indices. The Fall in Current Situation was due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and After the Realisation of Facts, Market are Stable now and Sustaining in the Bullish zone. We May not Enter the Bearish zone easily. Once Economies start rolling, there will be Hope and There will be Growth. Markets Run on Hope and Expectation of Growth Only !! 

All the Governments will make sure there are enough funds to boost consumption. Consumption will make sure Businesses are Running, Businesses Will Make Sure Employees and Supply Chains are in Motion. and Finally Economies will start Shifting gears.. Do Not Expect Everything to be good Overnight !! 

Things will change Slowly, steadily. Everything will be on track but the World will never be the same World again. Many things are going to change !! Accept The Change, Make sure you are always Prepared and Get ready to fight again.. !! 

Since Start, I have said many times... This is a War, This war is fought on different rules.. This War is Modern War... Now the time is of Bio war and Digital War. Do Not Expect Markets to be Always Good. Markets will be Difficult for Retail Investors and Traders. Capital Protection with Right Stocks is more important than earning Big Profits. 

The Reason for Studying all Indices is Different, It was done to make sure you don't get Trapped in Wrong Stock of Wrong Sector. ... Read Everything Very Carefully, Buy Only where Breakouts or Bullish Sentiments are intact.. Avoid Everything else. No Need of Falling in LOVE with your Stocks and Sticking to the same stocks always. 

Be Sensible, Be Wise, Stay Invested, Stay Blessed !! 

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From Tomorrow, I will start Posting Stock Analysis.. Will Cover Many Known, unknown Stocks where big Moves are expected in coming Months.. So Stay Tuned !! Do not miss !! 

If You want to Share this Post, Share the Link as it is... Do not Copy Paste anything on your name.. You will get caught easily !! 

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The Author : 

SHINDE ATUL S. 

is a Technical Analyst, Global Market Expert and Certified Investment Adviser having experience of 13 years in Indian and Global Markets, as Investment adviser and Fund Manager for Global Clients. 

The Views Posted here are My Personal views and I reserve the RIGHT to be WRONG always !! I have Tried not to biased in Analysis here and I haven't given Single Sided views also. For Me The Risk:Reward for Longs is Getting Better, so I am favoring the same.

Consult your Financial Adviser before entering any trade on my Analysis here, I bear No Responsibility of any losses occurred. If you don't have hired any Financial adviser yet, do it first and then Start Trading or Investing!! 

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